the state of the running back: a case against their functionality

By: Henry Kvech

In the modern era, the run game is the most vital factor for many teams around the NFL. 

But, in reality, it’s the person actually running the ball who is the LEAST vital factor for those teams.

​Each offseason it seems as though each position in the NFL has a new highest paid player of all time. Dak Prescott, quarterback of the Cowboys, signed a deal worth $60 million a year this last offseason, making him the highest paid quarterback by average annual salary in NFL history. Similarly, Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson became the highest paid receiver of all time on a per year basis, making an impressive $35 million a year.

Going back from 2024, it’s taken just five years for the top quarterbacks salaries to double, and there are clear reasons for this. It’s obvious to say that when a starting quarterback gets injured, the team normally does a lot worse. According to the Mile High Report, there were 133 backup QBs to start a game from 2000-2022. These backups combined to start for a total of 811 games, with a record of 210-601, or a win percentage of just 26 percent. This explains the trend in paying the QB, as it’s vital for teams to be stable at the position.

The trend continues when we look at wide receivers, doubling in the span of just six years. It’s notable that skill positions on offense are considered to be the quarterback, wide receiver, and the running back. One would think that running back contracts would follow at least somewhat of a similar pattern to their fellow skill positions. In 1999, running back Marshall Faulk signed a contract worth a little over $8 million a year. An astounding 21 years later, that number was finally doubled. 

This trend is no coincidence, and a contributing factor to this contract slump is seen when taking a look at the average running back’s career. It’s commonly said that the best ability is availability, and out of all the positions in football, offense, defense, or special teams, the running back has the shortest average career length, an average of just 2.57 years. Running backs receive the highest volume of hits and tackles, leading to injuries and a decline in play. The overwhelming risk of injury for the position makes it risky for teams to commit to lengthy or expensive contracts.

The teams that do end up putting pen to paper often regret it, seen recently with former Rams running back Todd Gurley. Gurley had a tremendous start to his career, and following a 2017 season where he earned offensive player of the year honors, the Rams decided to extend his contract. Gurley signed a contract that would keep him with the Rams until 2023, one that would have him earning over $14 million a year. The year following this extension, Gurley stayed on his superstar trajectory, though a knee injury at the end of the season forced him to sit out the last two games.

​The next year, Gurley’s numbers took a major dip, going from averaging 4.9 yards a carry the year before, to a humbling 3.8 in 2019. And in a similar fashion, a quadricep strain sidelined Gurley for the last game of the season. Gurley was released by the Rams following his lackluster 2019 season, cutting his career with the Rams three seasons short of his massive contract. The Falcons then picked him up on a highly praised one-year, $5.5 million contract. They knew that Gurley was still just 26, and he could really make a difference like he did with the Rams in 2018. Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports wrote, “the Falcons really aren’t paying much for a running back that is entering his prime.” Gurley again showed why running back contracts were risky, proving to be just a shell of his former self with his new team. His yards per carry again dipped to just 3.5, and he would never play another NFL season again, distanced by just a mere two seasons from his MVP runner-up performance in 2018.

Similarly, the Jets took a chance on the All-Pro caliber Le’Veon Bell in 2019, giving the former Steeler a four-year contract worth $13 million a year. Bell proved to be another example of why giving running backs big contracts is risky, as his yards per carry dropped from 4.3 with the Steelers to just 3.3 with the Jets. He was only in his second year with the team when they released him two games into the season.

But surely if the right player can stay healthy, a contract is deserved, right? Wrong. After all, are there really any running backs in the NFL that can separate themselves enough from their competition to deserve a pay day? Is every backup in the league just as good, or even better, than a team’s starter? Let’s answer that.

One might look at the superstar running backs of today like Christian McCaffrey or Nick Chubb, and immediately write off the argument. Hear me out. I randomly asked 15 people to tell me which running backs should be included in today’s top five. Surely the consensus top talent in the league is better than their lowly backups. They’re getting paid the most to perform, so they should obviously stand head and shoulders above the others. The graph of the results below show the players selected on the bottom, and the number of votes received up the left side.

For the sake of simplicity, we will only be looking at the two running backs who were unanimously picked to be on the list: San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey and Baltimore Ravens’ Derrick Henry.

​Immediately, we can see that health has not been a mainstay to McCaffrey’s game over his career. He’s missed 31 games due to injury since just 2020, almost two seasons worth of absences. McCaffrey missed the first eight games for the 49ers this season, and backup Jordan Mason had to step in as replacement. In those eight games, Mason quite nearly led the league in rushing yards, only trailing the Ravens’ Henry. Over that span he averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. McCaffrey returned for the 49ers game against the Buccaneers, and has played in a total of three full games so far this season. In those three games, he’s averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. 

The 49ers also don’t seem to look any better in McCaffrey’ return either; in the eight weeks he was injured, the team went 5-3. In his return, the 49ers lost 3 of their 4 games with him active. While I acknowledge that McCaffrey is a great running back, injuries have been rampant in his career, and the team didn't seem to lose a step with him gone. 

The 49ers then traveled on the road to Buffalo, where Mccaffrey suffered yet another season ending injury. McCaffrey is the highest paid RB in the league, but his unfortunate story should remind teams once again why committing to contracts past a rookie deal is risky for a franchise.
As for Henry, the Ravens’ superstar has been talked about immensely in the MVP conversation, and it's rare that we see a 30-year-old running back do this well. The last comparable player was when the Viking’s Adrian Peterson led the league in rushing at the age of 30, a feat that has only been accomplished by three players since 1932.

One might argue that since the Ravens have the league's second best rushing yards per game, it's Henry, the free agent from Tennessee, that has saved Baltimore football and given them a chance at a ring.

Since QB Lamar Jackson has been drafted, the Ravens have been a team that runs the ball frequently. In 2021, before Henry’s arrival, the Ravens tied the record for most consecutive 100 yard rushing games, with 43. Without Henry, they started the streak again, and got to 41 straight games. Henry arrived, and the streak ended at 42. The Ravens’ offense, which really hasn’t changed a whole lot with the addition of Henry, averaged 28.4 PPG in 2023, compared to 29.5 PPG this season.

A lot of Henry’s success is due, in part, to Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. With arguably the greatest rushing quarterback ever, defenses are always on high alert for a read option when the Ravens decide to run it. More attention being paid to the QB has helped contribute to Henry’s success.

The offensive line contributes massively to a running back’s success, and when an offensive line does well, a running back normally will also. In 2020, Henry rushed for his then career high of 5.4 yards per carry when the Titans had the 15th ranked offensive line according to PFF rankings. Over the next three years, the offensive line's success dipped each year, ranked 16th in 2021, 27th in 2022, and 32nd in 2023. Over that period of time, Henry’s yards per carry also took a dip from 5.4 to 4.2. Through 12 weeks of football, the Ravens’ offensive line ranked in the top 10 per PFF,  and Henry’s yards per carry have gone back up to 5.9. Did Henry magically become better at the age of 30, or is it really the O-line that determines a running back’s success?

Injuries and inconsistent play in recent years have hampered running backs’ value. And while there are sometimes outliers (this season it’s the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley), I cannot see any argument for prioritizing paying a running back.

​The position will always remain important, but the player may not always be.

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